中国银行副行长：重塑中美经贸关系

The bank of China vice President: reshape the china-us economic and trade relations

Remodeling china-us economic and trade relations

In the face of the United States "return to Asia" strategy, China is necessary to thinking and the economic and trade relationship orientation, strategy, should actively torsional china-us economic and trade investment imbalances, insist on the basis of equal justice, which improve sino-us economic and trade cooperation status

Reform and opening up 30 years, China and the us trade and investment rapid development. Sino-us economic and trade relations have become one of the world's most important bilateral economic and trade relations. China is the first largest source of imports, the second largest trading partner and the third largest export market, China for 11 consecutive years is the fastest growing export market; The United States is China's first big trade DuiXiangGuo and first big export DuiXiangGuo.

According to Chinese statistics caliber, 2012 bilateral import and export trade totaled $484.68 billion, more than 1979 204 times, growth of China's foreign trade volume proportion about 13%. Among them, the Chinese beauty export value is about 351.79 billion us dollars, up by 8.4%, accounting for the proportion of China's total exports more than 17%.

Economic and trade investment three imbalance

Overall, the china-us economic and trade relationship between investment realized interests complementary, mutual benefit and win-win result, but also has accumulated some unbalance factor. In recent years, china-us economic and trade investment imbalance further, main performance for three features:

Firstly, trade imbalance. In 2001, China's accession to the WTO, trade surplus with the us is a substantial rise, between 2001 and 2008 in the United States, China's trade surplus with an annual growth rate as high as 29%.

In 2009, the financial crisis, China's trade surplus with the United States more than 2008 years, but still down 16.1% to $143.38 billion, 2010 to 2011, China's trade surplus with the us restore growth, in 2012, China has the United States trade ShunChaE for 218.91 billion dollars.

At present the United States has become China's trade surplus first source, long-term sino-us trade imbalance between China and the United States make trade frictions become increasingly severe.

Secondly, the investment is not balanced. Investment imbalance is reflected not only in the investment scale, but also reflected in the investment structure.

China's direct investment to the United States is far less than that of the United States to China's direct investment scale, at present the United States in China's direct investment stock around $70.73 billion, while Chinese American direct investment stock only $7.785 billion.

In the United States and China indirect investment scale far outweigh the United States to China indirect investment scale, in 2012, China has the indirect investment, China held the United States national debt balance about $1.17 trillion; And the United States to China indirect investment scale is only the billions dollars. But in general, China to the United States than the United States investment scale of China's investment scale.

Third, trade and investment proportion is not balanced. Between China and the United States increased huge trade amount, does not bring the corresponding both sides direct investment scale increases, the total amount of investment between the two countries and growth rate obviously insufficient, and the two countries huge trade in goods and the two countries in the world economy does not match the position.

The cause of the imbalance

China-us economic and trade investment unbalanced formation reasons are various.

First of all, the two countries industrial structure and different functions. The United States in the economic globalization and the global industrial structure adjustment process will focus on the economic development of new and high technology industry and service industry, China's comparative advantage in labour-intensive industries.

Since the 1980 s, China's neighboring countries and regions in the product manufacturing labor intensive industry comparative advantage in China gradually replaced, low manufacturing was transferred to China, the United States of the country's trade deficit and transfer to China's trade deficit.

Second, the sino-us trade imbalance of statistical factors.

China's export goods by a third transshipment is lead to the statistical difference one important reason, one of the Hong Kong transit factor is the bilateral trade relations one of the characteristics.

At present the trade between China and the United States has quite part of trade by the Hong Kong. According to the rules of origin, the United States through Hong Kong to the mainland China product value all figure in China's exports to America, so that the goods in Hong Kong through the process of all added value has become a part of the mainland export.

The United States and through Hong Kong to the mainland of China the United States products included in the Hong Kong rather than the mainland, aeriform in expanded China to America's deficit amount.

In essence, china-us economic and trade imbalance, it is in the United States unilateralism and the dollar leading international economic order under the economic benefits of inequality, the United States from the sino-us trade imbalance for interests, far bigger than China.

Generally speaking, the economic and trade relationship between China and the United States can be summarized as China's production, consumption, and at the same time, the United States and China will export have dollars to buy national debt by the way back to the United States, to maintain the high debt operation. In this kind of relation of the back, in fact covers both the interests of the inequality.

The United States is China's development "spillover effect" of the main beneficiaries. Chinese exports to America's high quality and low price goods for American consumers to create economic benefits, to the stable market, reduce inflation played a major role. With China the accumulation of foreign currency reserves to buy America's huge national debt, this to the balanced budget, stable financial market is very important. But the rate of return on investment is very low.

Research shows that, in 2002-2012 China investment outside the store the average nominal return of 3% or so, if you consider that the dollar and the effect of inflation, foreign exchange reserves investment rate of return will also further shrunk dramatically.

In turn, the United States took from China have low price of money, to China's direct investment and high yield of equity securities investment, won the high investment profit.

Research has shown that foreign investment in China in average annual return of 20%. To Apple (Apple) products, for example, China's production of Apple iPad export to the United States, China on the surface increased exports, but of the $150 cost of production, only about $4 is created in China, most of the added value of added value and profit by U.S. investors and other countries took.

In addition to economic factors, china-us economic and trade imbalance also comes from the United States will political economic and trade relations.

In the modern international economy and trade relationship, never like china-us economic and trade relations so strong, a strong political color. The United States out of their own interests, in economic and trade cooperation between China and take the double standard, intervention, limit the us-china trade, investment structure and scope, the china-us economic and trade relations with the shadow of the politicised.

First, the United States does not recognize China's market economy status.

China has joined the world trade organization (WTO), adhere to market-oriented reform and all-round opening to the outside world, but so far, the United States does not recognize China's market economy status, and to enter in 15 years to complete the process. In the domestic interest groups, driven by the United States constantly stir up the trade friction, the use of anti-dumping, anti-subsidy means, on China's export, investment set obstacles.

Secondly, the United States itself does not comply with the principle of free trade.

According to the theory of free trade, a country export should follow the principle of comparative advantage, comparative advantage industry, product should be in the export of subject. But the United States has comparative advantage in the industry, such as high-tech areas, China's exports relatively less, and the industry productivity more than China, the industry exports to China of the world's total exports is lower, and this phenomenon in China's accession to the WTO were much more obvious.

Third, the United States in the bilateral economic and trade relations with double standards. In the advantage for themselves, they get free trade standard move, sometimes offering up the "double reverse" banner, and sometimes to the so-called "the RMB exchange rate" to put pressure on China. When can't use free trade standard from China, it took up "national security" and so on the nontrade weapons.

Is the source of deep concerned, china-us economic and trade imbalances between is that in us dollars as the center of the international monetary system's inherent contradiction, namely "terry Finn problem" (Triffin Dilemma).

That is to say, as long as the dollar as an international currency is, the United States must maintain the trade deficit, the output of dollars to meet the international market demand for dollars. But, as an international currency countries, the United States and to maintain a favorable balance of trade in order to maintain the stability of the currency. Both do not have your cake and eat it.

The United States dollar out of the way not only include trade deficit, and the current account and capital account "double deficit".

The United States is the world's largest trade deficit countries, at the same time, the U.S. government debt is also continued to rise. At the beginning of 2013, the United States government debt has total $16.4 trillion, accounting for the proportion of GDP has more than 90%.

Therefore, from the economics point of view, America's trade balance and financial situations don unable to support a strong dollar. Longer term, the dollar is inevitable trend.

Since since the financial crisis, to stimulate the economy growth, the United States to take mass quantitative easing policy, it is the United States dollar currency with international monopoly position to pass on the global crisis, it will save the American economy burden and cost to pay all over the world.

As America's largest creditor countries, China's Treasury hold more than 1.17 trillion dollars. Each round of dollars quantitative easing of spillover effect to our country all claims caused by dilution and diluted, inevitably causes losses to our claim interest.

To balance strategy

Since 2011, the United States high-profile put forward "return to Asia" strategy, to strengthen the 21st century the United States in the dominant position, as Asia "century leader" role.

One of the goals is to promote the asia-pacific region "abide by the rules", the core is to use the international rules and norms to restrain and guide China, and the other countries in the region "regulations and rules applicable" category common deal with China.

The United States in 2011, APEC (asia-pacific economic cooperation organization) meeting, trying to launch their dominant across the Pacific (6.24, 0.01, 0.16%) strategic economic partnership agreement (TPP), the United States to China currently do not have agreement required conditions for, clear refused to invite Chinese involved.

The move is aimed at overhead China has participated in or are negotiations to join all kinds of trade cooperation mechanisms, including China, South Korea and Japan free trade, China asean free trade area, and even APEC itself, forcing China to the United States to the conditions, make the whole Asian economic and trade cooperation are included in the United States led the orbit.

As the U.S. "return to Asia" strategy come on stage, China and the United States on the asia-pacific region competition, cooperation and even some specific issues against potential will enter a new stage, the relations between China and the United States will be more complex.

In the face of the United States "return to Asia" strategy, China is necessary to thinking and the economic and trade relationship orientation, strategy, and that of win-win, promote strategic mutual trust, expand economic and trade areas of cooperation, promote the level of cooperation, but also should actively torsional china-us economic and trade investment imbalances, insist on the basis of equal justice, which improve sino-us economic and trade cooperation status.

It is transformation of the mode of economic development. Eliminate the sino-us trade imbalance, in the final analysis, the country needs to transformation of the mode of economic development, investment, export drive mode of economic growth turned to domestic demand, investment and export will be coordinated to pull the development pattern. Only in this way, can from essentially reduce china-us economic and trade imbalances, truly improve the national welfare, and promote the sustainable development of bilateral economic and trade relations.

Change the foreign trade development strategy. According to the principle of mutual benefit and win-win results, and promote economic and trade cooperation of beauty from scale expansion to improve quality and efficiency, from the cost advantage to comprehensive competitive advantage transformation, promote the sino-american trade balance. China exports to America has always been in labor intensive low value-added products, industrial structure in low value chain. China should adjust the industrial structure as soon as possible, carry out scientific and technological innovation, the development has the technology capital advantage industry, forming technology, brand, quality and service as the core competition of the new advantages.

Implement multiple strategy, improve China's foreign trade market is not balanced and concentration condition. Should increase strength, open up new market, and strive to improve to Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, commonwealth of independent states, eastern Europe, southeast Asia and neighboring countries to cope with trade, foreign investment in the United States policy change and market fluctuation provide adequate room for manoeuvre, increase our in the competition and game of the chip.

To speed up the RMB to go out. Torsional china-us economic and trade imbalance, unequal situation, get rid of the Chinese economy is subject to the adverse situation $, and promote the internationalization of RMB is the only way. The United States of persistent implementation of quantitative easing policy for the international society, the euro and the yen unpredictable future status obviously weakened, the countries all over the world urgently expect a new major currency in the global economic and financial system play a bigger role in the situation, the RMB internationalization with the development of a new opportunity.

To continue to do bigger and stronger RMB settlement of cross-border trade, expand and main trade rival country currency swap arrangements, and promote regional monetary cooperation, at the same time deepening domestic financial market reform, speeds up the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform, safely ahead RMB capital account convertibility.

With the reform of China's economic strength and gradually promote the further ascension, RMB internationalization is a natural process.